[RPKI] Changing RPKI state

[Tim Bruijnzeels]

Hi,

> On 25 Feb 2021, at 11:37, Luuk Hendriks via RPKI <rpki at lists.nlnetlabs.nl> wrote:
> 
>> I’ve noticed such changes on a few occasions now and I’m wondering if such fluctuation is expected?
>> Or is there something going wrong when fetching VRPs on my side?
> 
> Assuming you don't spot obvious errors with regards to connectivity to
> repository servers in your logs, my guess is you are simply seeing the
> same differences as listed on rpki.today. Which, again, are perfectly
> normal and a sign that adoption of RPKI is increasing.

I would expect that these fluctuations match the actual changes in BGP.

This could be interesting research, provided you have detailed enough history of both BGP and VRPs.

My hypothesis would be that a longitudinal analysis would show that it's related to RPKI uptake, especially w.r.t. validation which gives a strong incentive to fix ROAs if they disagree with your routing intent. So I would expect that the change rate in ROAs increasingly matches changes in BGP, and that possible delays in ROA updates wrt BGP are now getting shorter.

Tim