[RPKI] recent increase in invalid routes: Starhub

[nusenu]

I don't measure all invalid announcements - I just measure
unreachable IP space so my numbers are significantly lower
than yours (<2k vs. >5k prefixes) and can not be compared directly.

I use exclusively RIPE RIS dumps and publish my resulting data here:
https://nusenu.github.io/RPKI-Observatory

I can confirm an increase in unreachable IPv6 prefixes on 2018-12-12 but I'm primarily
measuring IP space by size (not by prefix count) and
by that metric I didn't see a relevant event (with a measurement probing resolution of 12h
on 2018-12-12 compared to other events when unreachable IP space changed.

According to the data I see, a single ROA for AS55430 that became effective
on 2018-12-12 10:32:10 UTC caused most of the
new unreachable prefixes.
The specific ROA contains a maxlen of /38 (typo?)
and invalidated 182 IPv6 prefixes, but since
all of them are just /48s it didn't affect to much IPv6 space
when compared with the overall numbers.

Datetime		#IPv6 prefixes		/48s
+---------------------+----------+--------------------+
| 2018-11-23 02:35:00 |      103 |            1742227 |
| 2018-11-29 14:35:00 |      140 |            2069913 |
| 2018-12-07 14:35:00 |      124 |            2532249 |
| 2018-12-10 02:35:00 |      125 |            2532250 |
| 2018-12-10 14:35:00 |      125 |            2532250 |
| 2018-12-11 02:35:00 |      125 |            2532250 |
| 2018-12-11 14:35:00 |      125 |            2532250 |
| 2018-12-12 02:35:00 |      123 |            1942426 |
| 2018-12-12 14:35:00 |      294 |            1942604 |
+---------------------+----------+--------------------+

The IPv4 numbers didn't change much on that day:

+---------------------+----------+--------------------+
| 2018-11-23 02:35:00 |     1623 |               8889 |
| 2018-11-29 14:35:00 |     1673 |               8961 |
| 2018-12-07 14:35:00 |     1620 |              10125 |
| 2018-12-10 02:35:00 |     1582 |               9068 |
| 2018-12-10 14:35:00 |     1577 |               9063 |
| 2018-12-11 02:35:00 |     1580 |               9064 |
| 2018-12-11 14:35:00 |     1614 |               9127 |
| 2018-12-12 02:35:00 |     1619 |               9132 |
| 2018-12-12 14:35:00 |     1610 |               9123 |
+---------------------+----------+--------------------+

If you would like to reduce the number of unreachable
IPv6 space effectively there are many (22) ASNs which
announce more unreachable IPv6 address space than AS55430.
https://nusenu.github.io/RPKI-Observatory/unreachable_as-v6.html

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